Researchers released a new dataset measuring the size, demographics, and beliefs of the Christian nationalist movement in America earlier this month, and the findings are grim. The Public Religion Research Institute’s 2025 “Christian Nationalism Across All 50 States” data found that support for Christian nationalist beliefs is strongly correlated with increased hostility towards migrants, adherence to sexist and patriarchal views, and an increased likelihood of belief in conspiracy theories and support for political violence.
With so much dispute around the definition of Christian nationalism – with some calling it a slur and even denying its existence – PRRI has carved a vital niche for itself in the field in recent years, bringing high-quality data collection and analysis to bear on the task of defining and measuring a controversial movement. The data they published earlier this month came from a survey fielded between March and December 2024, which had more than 22,000 respondents spread across all 50 states; a sample size many times larger than the average electoral poll, for instance. The survey also listed where each state ranks in prevalence of Christian nationalism, with Oklahoma placing first, Massachusetts placing last, and Colorado clocking in at 31st.
The new findings are striking, but they fall flat without an understanding of the methodology which makes PRRI’s research on Christian nationalism so valuable. The group’s work does not rely on Christian nationalists self-identifying as such, but instead defines the movement based on five core beliefs, and sorts survey respondents into different categories based on whether they fully agree, somewhat agree, somewhat disagree, or fully disagree with each of those core beliefs. In other words, PRRI defines members of the movement based on their attachment to the movement’s beliefs, not based on whether they consider themselves Christian nationalists. It is a methodology which acknowledges that faith is a personal matter, while still seeking to measure the way faith-beliefs manifest in politics and society.
Once the numbers are crunched and those survey answers about the five core beliefs are applied, respondents are filed into one of four categories (listed from greatest attachment to Christian nationalist beliefs to least): Adherents, Sympathizers, Skeptics, and Rejecters. These are the categories all of the newly released data are broken down into.
According to the latest PRRI data, only about 10% of Americans qualify as Adherents, with another 20% being Sympathizers. Skeptics and Rejecters combine to account for 66% of the population, while the remaining 4% doesn’t have any idea what the rest of us are talking about. When PRRI refers to “support for Christian nationalist beliefs,” they are referring to the Adherents and Sympathizers who account for about 30% of the population, roughly 100 million of our countrymen.
These numbers have held stable since last year’s PRRI data, showing no additional growth in the movement year-over-year. It also remains the case that the majority of American Christians are not, in fact, Christian nationalists.
The demographics of the movement have also held relatively stable: Christian nationalist beliefs are held mostly by older, more conservative Americans, and correlate to a lower level of educational attainment. The beliefs also appear to be most appealing to white and Hispanic protestants. Per PRRI:
“Roughly two-thirds of white evangelical Protestants (30% Adherents and 35% Sympathizers) and a majority of Hispanic Protestants (26% Adherents and 31% Sympathizers) qualify as Christian nationalists. About four in ten Latter-day Saints (12% Adherents and 25% Sympathizers) and Black Protestants (17% Adherents and 27% Sympathizers) also qualify as Christian nationalist supporters.”
But movements are not defined by their demographics; they are defined by their beliefs. It’s only when the survey questions venture out of definitional territory and start asking respondents about their views on social and political topics that the true face of American Christian nationalism can be seen – warts and all.
When PRRI asks respondents about sentiments towards migrants, for instance, Adherents and Sympathizers stand out from the general population, embracing extreme views in large numbers. While 35% of Americans agree with the statement that “Immigrants entering the country illegally today are poisoning the blood of our country,” Christian nationalism Adherents and Sympathizers are almost twice as likely to agree. Only 12% of Rejecters agree.
Likewise, support for Christian nationalist views appears to dramatically increase the likelihood of subscribing to the “Great Replacement” conspiracy theory.
“Only 36% of Americans agree with the ‘Great Replacement Theory’ — the belief that ‘immigrants are invading our country and replacing our cultural and ethnic background,’” PRRI wrote. “However, support for that belief is much higher among Christian nationalism Adherents (68%) and Sympathizers (62%), compared with just one-third of Skeptics (34%) and fewer than one in ten Rejecters (9%).
The new PRRI data shows a strong link between support for Christian nationalism and patriarchal beliefs concerning gender and women’s role in society, finding that 72% of Christian nationalism Adherents agree that “society as a whole has become too soft and feminine,” compared with only 18% of Rejecters. Meanwhile, 61% of Adherents also agree that “society is better off when men and women stick to the jobs and tasks they are naturally suited for.” Skeptics (35%) and Rejecters (15%) agreed at far lower rates.
The survey also found that Christian nationalist beliefs correlate to an increased likelihood of believing in conspiracy theories like QAnon, which centers on claims that societal elites are secretly Satanic pedophiles engaged in large-scale child trafficking and murder. According to PRRI’s data, 19% of Americans believe in QAnon. Among Christian nationalism Adherents, though, that number more than doubles to 50%.
Most troubling, though, is the dangerous connection between Christian nationalist beliefs and support for political violence. From the new report:
“Less than two in ten Americans (17%) agree with the statement “Because things have gotten so far off track, true American patriots may need to resort to violence in order to save our country,” while a strong majority (79%) disagree. However, agreement with political violence is significantly higher among Christian nationalism Adherents (38%) and Sympathizers (28%), compared with Skeptics (15%) and Rejecters (7%), highlighting the strong association between Christian nationalist beliefs and support for political violence.”
It’s worth noting that 38% is not a majority, meaning most Christian nationalists still do not believe that “true American patriots may need to resort to violence.” That’s a good thing. It is also worth noting, however, that – between Adherents and Sympathizers – about 20-30 million Americans have already arrived at a point where they believe that violence may be both necessary and permissible. And that’s a bad thing.
It is easy to dismiss “Christian nationalism” as some sort of boogeyman, or as a 21st century rebranding of the kind of Christian conservatism pushed by the Moral Majority of the 80s and 90s. But it’s neither of those things. It is an extremist movement, with extreme beliefs, and support from 100 million Americans. The fact that the movement is outnumbered does not mean that it is powerless. Just look around you – it’s currently in power. We are living in the future we warned about, where Trump has been reelected on a wave of Christian nationalist support, the authors of Project 2025 have taken up Senate-confirmed roles in his administration, and the project to remake the country in their image is being put into effect. It’s real, it’s here, and the very least we can do is understand what it means when we talk about it.
That’s why I value the annual PRRI data-dump so much: it is up-to-date field intel, showing us not only what we are contending against, but where, and along what lines. It helps us understand not only what beliefs constitute the Christian nationalist movement, but how those beliefs coalesce and manifest in other areas of society and politics.
It helps us understand that Christian nationalism is not reflective of the version of Christianity which cares for widows and orphans, which welcomes a stranger in a strange land, but instead reflects the version of Christianity which millions have worked to leave behind in the Middle Ages: the version which brought us pogroms, inquisitions, and burnings at the stake. It is a movement which promises Salem, not Selma.
And whenever I start to forget that – whenever I think of pulling a punch or softening up, or succumbing to the gaslighting – I look at the data, and remember that this hateful, sexist, conspiratorial movement has its sights set on everyone and everything I love, that it is anathema to every possible future I have ever desired. And then I get back to work.
