While no polls have been conducted in Colorado’s Republican gubernatorial primary yet, the race’s frontrunner, Victor Marx, pointed to his favorable odds on Polymarket on Monday as a reason he was invited to speak at an upcoming Conservative Political Action Committee (CPAC) event. As of 6 a.m. that morning, the prediction market gave him a 77% chance of winning the Republican nomination.
Just hours later — when his main opponent in the primary, state Sen. Barb Kirkmeyer (R-Weld County), filled the signatures needed to secure her place on the ballot two days early — his odds plummeted on the popular betting site while Kirkmeyer’s spiked sharply.
“Key people, both in the [Republican National Committee] and Turning Point USA, they’re checking all that out,” said Marx about the prediction markets during a Monday appearance on 710 KNUS’s The Jeff and Bill Show. “I think that’s one of the reasons why I was asked to speak at CPAC here in a couple of weeks.”
Marx submitted his signature to the Colorado Secretary of State on Wednesday, the deadline for all primary candidates, although his odds have continued to decline and dropped to 50% as of Thursday afternoon.
Kirkmeyer held the lead in the race, according to Polymarket’s trading data, until early February, when Marx surpassed her, and he largely maintained a small gap until making major gains in early March, reaching a peak on Monday. Kirkmeyer currently sits at 31% after a boost in support following her filling.
Prediction markets, such as those offered by Polymarket and Kalshi, allow individuals to place monetary bets on the odds of any given event occurring, ranging from the length of the national anthem at the Super Bowl to whether the U.S. would strike Iran by a given date.
These markets have garnered major media attention recently, with CNN having made an official partnership with Kalshi to use their markets in news coverage last year, although many have raised concerns about the reliability of the information, as well as the potential for insider trading.
In the New York City Democratic mayoral primary, Andrew Cuomo held a large lead on Polymarket up until the day of the election, when Zohran Mamdani won by nearly 8%. More than $400 million was wagered on the election, with one individual reportedly losing nearly $1 million betting against Mamdani.
Over $42,000 in bets have been placed on various results for the Colorado Republican gubernatorial primary on Polymarket so far, with an additional $12,000 placed in a similar market on Kalshi. Both have been open since early Dec., and will be resolved when the winner of the race is announced in June.
Marx has posted to Facebook about his odds on both prediction markets twice in the last month, once on March 10 when his odds first saw a major uptick, and again on March 14, saying that the markets “reflect the analysis of people who study campaigns closely enough to actually risk their own money on the outcome.”
