Rep. Jeff Crank, the freshman Republican representing the area around Colorado Springs, easily won the 2024 election in a district that is very friendly to Republicans.
But Democrats are betting that voters will be more open to a Democrat in November’s midterms, which are expected to be more favorable overall to their party than to Republicans.
Crank, a former conservative radio host, has mostly supported President Donald Trump, voting against Obamacare subsidies and in favor of cuts to Medicaid. He has kept his position steady on Trump’s immigration crackdown, even in the wake of killings in Minnesota and elsewhere by immigration agents.
Earlier this month, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) placed Crank’s seat on its target list for districts-in-play alongside the swing district occupied by fellow Colorado Congressman Gabe Evans, who is considered to be one of the most vulnerable Republicans in the midterms this year.
It’s the first time the DCCC placed Crank’s district, which has never elected a Democratic candidate to serve in Congress, on its list.
Both he Cook Political Report with Amy Walter, a nonpartisan political publication, and Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball, a newsletter and website that provides political analysis, rate the seat as “likely Republican” but election watchers say the district has drifted further to the left over the years and that some of the more well-educated, affluent and suburban parts of the district may be more likely to vote Democratic this year. Although the district is very conservative, it tends to be more favorable to Republicans in general than MAGA in particular, they explain.
One of the Few Districts in the Country That’s Trended Left
Erin Covey, U.S. House editor at The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter, said Democrats have a better shot at flipping the seat in this election cycle than they have ever had.
“This is a very historically conservative district, and obviously Colorado Springs is a pretty traditionally Republican part of the state,” she said.
“But the population has grown and shifted a lot over the past several years, and this is one of the few districts in the country that trended left on the presidential level between 2020 and 2024. Most of the country trended a little bit or a lot to the right in the past four years, and so that alone kind of makes it notable.”
But it is a redder district than Evans’ 8th Congressional District, north of Denver, and should favor a Republican, even in an election climate that is friendlier to Democrats. Although it is considered a “reach” for Democrats to flip, Covey said she will be watching it closely as one of the more interesting House races this year.
Crank himself is someone Covey sees as falling between U.S. Rep. Lauren Boebert’s (R-CO) brand of politics and that of Colorado Congressman Jeff Hurd, who represents the western and southern parts of the state. (That’s the district Boebert abandoned in 2024 to run for Congress — and win — in eastern Colorado.)
Crank is not as willing to break from his party as Hurd, who voted in favor of Obamacare subsidies, and he hasn’t quite distinguished himself because of these party-line votes. His status as a freshman could make him more vulnerable since he isn’t as entrenched in voters’ minds.
“It’s still a Republican-leaning district, but frankly more Republican down the ballot than at the top of the ballot with Trump because I think it’s more of an old-school Republican district and Colorado Springs has been Republican basically forever,” said Kyle Kondik, managing editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball. “But it’s not outside the realm of possibility that a Democrat could flip it under the right circumstances.”
He said how Democrats perform depends a lot on whether they have a “credible challenger.” He said Democrats have been making more progress over the years in chipping away at some of the more conservative areas of the country.
“In these highly-educated and suburban style places, there has been some falloff [for Republicans], and even in this district, there has been some falloff even as it remains Republican. So can Democrats move into more of these districts?” Kondik said.
Jessica Killin, one of the possible Democratic challengers to Crank, raised more than $1 million as of October, showing that a lot of money is being poured into the race, and her campaign is outfundraising Crank so far. Killin is the former chief of staff to Doug Emhoff, former Vice President Kamala Harris’ husband, and an Army veteran. There are a few other candidates running in the Democratic primary, which will take place in June, including Matt Cavanaugh, who previously ran as an independent.
Covey said that it’s likely Democrats will have a serious candidate running against Crank in this election and that this factor, combined with a political environment more favorable to Democrats than in 2024 and 2022, along with the district trending more toward Democrats over time, will make it a more exciting race to watch.
“But even if Democrats don’t win this cycle, the way it’s moving over time could give them an opportunity in future cycles,” she said.
Kondik and Covey largely expect voters to be focused on the economy when they make their decision in the midterms, but immigration could play some role. Although Kondik said Republicans were confident that campaigning on immigration worked for them in Evans’ district in 2024, it doesn’t look like it will necessarily be a winning issue for them in 2026.
“I don’t think Republicans will be on as solid ground on immigration as they were in 2024,” he said.
In June of last year, when describing immigration policy, Crank said Democrats “allowed millions to storm America, many were sex traffickers, drug-runners, child predators, murderers and thugs.” When responding to the killing of Renee Good by an ICE agent in January, he said, “It could have been prevented by her if she would have complied with the lawful orders of law enforcement.”
Democrats are clearly thinking about immigration and how Republicans’ intense focus on the issue and how ramped up ICE activity, which has resulted in the detainment of more children and the holding of many U.S. citizens, could backfire on them in the midterms.
Andrew Baumann, partner at Global Strategy Group, a public relations and research firm that has advised several Democratic politicians, who’s working for Killin, one of the Democrats hoping to unseat Crank, said he doesn’t see Republicans performing as well with the same approach to immigration in this cycle.
“This was their best issue, right? They basically neutered it and turned it into a negative for themselves,” he said.
But he also said he thinks Crank is vulnerable on the economy, pointing to Crank’s tweet about how the Trump administration has “delivered lower costs across the board” after the president’s State of the Union address. Baumann said he believes it may be difficult to make this case in the current economic environment. In January, consumer confidence fell to its lowest reading since 2014, the economy had nearly zero job growth last year, and in the past 12 months, as of Jan. 29, just under half of American adults said it was difficult to afford healthcare costs.
“That’s not going to fly. Voters aren’t going to believe this,” he said.
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